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Neutral

Overall Market Signal

Market conditions are mixed. Exercise caution and monitor key indicators closely.

Favorable: Healthy ranges, positive conditions
Neutral: Moderate ranges, watch for changes
Caution: Elevated risks, defensive positioning
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Signal Logic: Weighted summation of Sentiment, Valuation, Liquidity, Technical & Macro indicators based on preselected thresholds per investor's risk tolerance
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Historical Indicator Performance

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S&P 500 Index (Reference)

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2015
2025
20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

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How to Use These Indicators

Leading Indicators

  • Sentiment (AAII, VIX, etc.): Extreme fear/greed often signals turning points; contrarian indicator
  • Valuation (P/E Ratios): High valuations suggest lower future returns, though timing varies
  • Liquidity (M1/M2): Money supply changes impact asset prices with 6-12 month lag

Confirming Indicators

  • Technical (Breadth, RSI): Deteriorating breadth warns of weakening rallies before tops
  • Macro (Housing Starts): Economic activity indicators confirm or contradict market moves
  • Multiple Signals: Combine indicators across categories for best risk assessment

Important: These indicators have been useful historically but are not perfect predictors. Use them in combination and consider the broader market context. For educational purposes only.